Due to the international crude oil price falling first and then rising during the month, the cost of oil based polypropylene supported a slight decrease and then an increase. However, the factory price of polypropylene decreased during the month, and the overall profit of oil based polypropylene decreased. The cost support for coal production is relatively stable, with polypropylene costs mainly fluctuating within the month. Coal based polypropylene has experienced a significant decline in profits due to factory impact. Due to the price of imported propane falling first and then rising, the price of domestic polypropylene has decreased, and under bilateral compression, the overall profit has declined. The average profit of oil-based polypropylene within the month is -759 yuan/ton; The average profit of coal based polypropylene is 327 yuan/ton, methanol based polypropylene is -870 yuan/ton, and PDH based polypropylene is 126 yuan/ton. Thanks to cost changes, the average profit of the PDH system has slightly improved compared to the previous month, while the average profit of the oil system during the month has slightly improved compared to the previous month; The average profit of coal based and methanol based polypropylene decreased compared to last month.

Recently, the cost of various process routes for PP petrochemical enterprises is relatively high. In the future, global crude oil consumption entered the traditional peak season in June. After excluding other force majeure factors, the crude oil market showed a trend of fluctuating and rising demand as it gradually recovered. It is expected that the cost of oil based polypropylene will remain strong in June.

In the Inner Mongolia market, the main coal producing area, except for a few coal mines that have completed production tasks and ceased production, most coal mines maintain normal production, and the overall coal supply is basically stable. It is expected that the cost of coal to polypropylene will not change significantly in June.

Entering June, methanol is in a low demand season, and the fundamentals are expected to be short, affecting the trend of methanol prices. The overall price is mainly weak and volatile. It is expected that the cost of methanol to polypropylene will decrease slightly in June. The price of imported propane is currently at a relatively low level, and it is expected that the cost of PDH polypropylene production will be supported in June.

Fundamentals are a double-edged sword, which makes PP prices vulnerable. However, considering the high cost of polypropylene, the market price has repeatedly hit new lows, it is difficult for petrochemical to sustain losses for a long time, and the import arbitrage window is closed, while the export arbitrage window is open. Petrochemical may seek a breakthrough through load reduction or export.